Monday Evening Soccer heads south of the border for a global showdown in Week 11. The San Francisco 49ers and Arizona Cardinals battle inside Estadio Azteca in Mexico Metropolis.
The NFL has an opportunity to arrange a beefy unfold for this neutral-site contest, filling that lineup due to uncertainty in Arizona’s passing sport. Quarterback Kyler Murray is questionable with a hamstring harm, as is prime goal DeAndre Hopkins, leaving backup Colt McCoy as a possible pass-rusher in an offense that may even be with out TE Zach Ertz.
Alternatively, San Francisco is as wholesome because it has been all season, which is saying one thing. The Niners loved a bye two weeks in the past and are coming off a pair of wins over Los Angeles groups. San Francisco was really swept in each video games by Arizona final season and has misplaced three of its final 4 on this NFC West contest.
I break down the purpose unfold and general Over/Below for Monday Evening Soccer and supply one of the best NFL betting picks and predictions for 49ers vs. Cardinals under.
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49ers vs Cardinals greatest odds
49ers vs Cardinals picks and predictions
It is a bizarre launch for a bizarre sport, actually.
Books are stacked in opposition to the doable harm points for this Cardinals passing sport, with Murray and Hopkins each questionable with hamstring illnesses and operating again Colt McCoy not as little as some would have it pondering
However, sure. You will have heard: this sport is performed in Mexico Metropolis.
That works in opposition to Arizona, not solely from a personnel standpoint and matchup with the grind of a Niners workforce, but in addition from a positional blocking angle. The Playing cards had to surrender a house sport for this worldwide showdown, which implies one other week of journey – with the additional rounds of provides to convey everybody and every little thing over on the border.
Arizona will play its second street sport in a row and its third sport away from residence in 4 weeks – a troublesome spot for any schedule. The Cardinals do not have a bye till Week 13 whereas San Francisco had a bye two weeks in the past and comes into this sport wholesome, for his requirements.
The cherry on prime of this NFC West battle is that it is being performed 7,200 ft above sea degree in Mexico Metropolis, which implies air flow and restoration can be examined in skinny air the quiet vitality of Estadio Azteca. Sprinkle within the smog and native air pollution from the fifth most densely populated metropolis on the planet, and who is aware of how crews will react.
Niners head coach Kyle Shanahan selected to work at altitude this week, taking the workforce to Colorado Springs (which continues to be solely 5,600 ft above sea degree) whereas Cardinals coach Kliff Kingsbury selected to remain, a place indoor top and keep on with regular earlier than touring to Mexico on Saturday.
Taking the unfold, harm and positional elements out of the combo for a second, we all know that San Francisco is one of the best workforce on each side of the ball. Shanahan’s playbook consists of elite gamers with out stopping and goes to present a contact to whoever is feeling frisky that day.
Defensively, you will have the most effective blocking items within the NFL that might go up in opposition to a QB backup with out his major goal and with out his security blanket in injured TE Zach Ertz. The 49ers are an elite move rush that causes chaos with no need further our bodies and have restricted seven of their 9 opponents to 19 factors or much less.
Nonetheless, we’re going to select a less complicated strategy: giving the factors and enjoying San Francisco on the double outcome, also called the primary half / full sport.
With the present unfold, the 49ers are as costly as -400 to win outright (and might be as shut as -500 if Arizona’s injured stars sit) however solely -150 for the primary half and win the sport.
San Francisco enters Week 11 as Soccer Outsiders’ No. 9 1H offense in DVOA, averaging 12.4 factors within the opening half-hour. On the flip aspect of that metric, the 49ers are the No. 4 1H protection in DVOA and maintain opponents to simply 8.6 factors in opposition to within the opening two frames.
From there, the depth of the Niners offense will take over within the second half because the altitude in Mexico Metropolis begins to have an effect on each groups. If Shanahan’s “That is what the science says” strategy to pitching holds, he has the horses to put on down an Arizona protection that has scored massive factors in current weeks, together with 75 factors within the second half whole within the final 4 video games.
Going with the double output on San Fran prices a medium-risk full-game moneyline (49ers is -4.5 1H Faves) whereas defending in opposition to last-minute harm updates at Arizona (constructive or unfavorable). He dances round a doubtlessly greater unfold whereas benefiting from a positional place and matchup that favors the 49ers.
My greatest guess: 49ers double outcome (-150 at bet365)
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49ers vs Cardinals unfold evaluation
San Francisco -1.5 -1.5 earlier than the beginning of the season that was deliberate for this sport in Mexico Metropolis. That unfold was sitting at -5.5 earlier than the occasions of Week 10. And with the Niners defeating the Chargers and the Cardinals beating an LA Rams workforce with backup Colt McCoy, the Week 11 impartial website was re- opened at 49ers -6.
Nonetheless, with the standing of Murray and Hopkins in query, and San Francisco gathering weekly cash from the betting markets, this unfold went up and blew via the principle variety of rounds and sat as excessive as – 8.5 at some respected on-line outlets.
Not solely do the 49ers have a loaded offense that’s eleventh in EPA per sport, however the protection is getting more healthy and is actually the spine of this workforce.
The Niners are No. 5 in EPA allowed per sport, anchored by a move rush that ranks fifth in speeding yards per drop again and has piled up 29 QB sacks on the yr. San Francisco can get this stress with out blitzing a lot, producing high quality rushes with the entrance 4 and permitting linemen to drop again in protection or get a fast take a look at the quarterback.
McCoy has confirmed to be a worthy backup and Arizona’s offense might not take the identical dip that different offenses do after they flip to the second stinger. He was a strong 26-for-37 passing with 238 yards in opposition to the Rams final week, with 98 of these positive aspects coming from Hopkins. If Murray and Hopkins lose the one on Monday evening, the Cardinals will climb to double-digit canine.
49ers vs. Cardinals Over/Below evaluation
This whole opened at 44 factors on Sunday evening and has moved down barely to 43.5.
Whereas the Niners offense could be very environment friendly with a number of choices, it’s methodical in its tempo, and runs a play each 29.79 seconds – the fifth slowest within the NFL. San Francisco ranks twenty second in performs per sport and its relentless offense might put on down the Cardinals’ protection rapidly, as the sport is being performed 7,200 ft above sea degree within the skinny air of Mexico Metropolis .
Arizona is a sooner offense, averaging essentially the most performs within the league coming into Week 11. The Cardinals name an offensive play each 26.44 seconds – the fourth-fastest . The offense has seen enhancements since Hopkins returned from suspension in Week 7, rating sixteenth in EPA per play after sitting twentieth within the opening six weeks of motion.
As for the Cardinals’ protection, it is an aggressive strategy that blitzes on 37.5% of dropbacks – third within the NFL. Arizona has a 24.4% move rush fee however solely has 19 sacks on the season – regardless of throwing the kitchen sink at QBs.
The Cardinals enter Week 11 with a 5-5 Over/Below document on the season, having been outscored in 4 straight video games. The 49ers headed into the Below with a 3-6 O/U document however are 2-1 O/U of their final three video games.
49ers vs Cardinals betting tip to know
Since Kyle Shanahan took over as head coach in 2017, the 49ers are 7-11-1 ATS when placing up greater than six factors, together with a career-best 1-4-1 ATS by -6.5 or greater in opposition to a regional opponent. Discover extra NFL betting traits for 49ers vs Cardinals.
49ers vs Cardinals sport information
|Location:||Azteca Stadium, Mexico Metropolis, Mexico|
|Date:||Monday, November 21, 2022|
|Kick off:||8:15 pm ET|
|Opening occasions:||Cardinals +7.5, 43.5|
49ers vs Cardinals newest harm
49ers vs Cardinals climate
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